2024 Seattle Mariners Top-30 Prospects
The Seattle Mariners have a great list of prospects who can make an impact in 2024:
Colt Emerson, INF
I decided to go against my initial thoughts from the 2023 Draft Day and place Emerson at the top of the Seattle rankings. My belief at first with the 2023 1st rounder, was another hit for average prep bat for the Mariners. What drew me to Emerson was watching him live in Modesto. The one thing I notice in Emerson and somewhat see lacking in the two prospects that will follow the power tool. Emerson, in my eyes, has not only the hit tool but the ability to naturally hit the ball out of the park. When compared to Cole Young and Harry Ford (who can very much do just that), Emerson should have a much easier progression with that tool. Emerson, who was slated to be a 2B for Auburn had he chosen college, profiles as a 3B or possibly a 1B for Seattle.
Cole Young, SS
In a similar fashion to Emerson, Young’s hit tool is his real calling card. Young also maintains a good batting eye at the plate. As previously mentioned with Emerson, Young does not have the raw power potential I feel Emerson has. Young does have a higher upside as an infielder and seems to be viewed by Seattle evaluators as a true SS/2B option in the future. His defensive ability is a bit more polished than Emerson’s as an infielder. For Young, a healthy average and possible 25+ steals as a top-of-the-order bat is within reach.
Harry Ford, C
Ford, the World Baseball Classic hero of Great Britain, has his prospect value tied to his position. As a catcher, Ford is a Top-100 prospect in all of baseball. Ford possesses a patient approach. In 2023 at High-A Everett, Ford had a better K/BB ratio as he walked at a near 1:1 rate. The power, while maybe not as projectable as Emerson, is going to project into 20+ HRs in the majors. The athletic ability of Ford could mean a move to the OF, however, that also suggests that Ford can play catcher and still contribute with a high batting average and speed on the basepaths. As a catcher with those traits, the ceiling is high as is his ranking in this system. The drawback is whether he is indeed developed away from the catching spot going forward.
Tyler Locklear, 1B/3B
Admittedly, I am a bit higher on Locklear than most. When it comes to his spot on the Mariners list, I have him higher than a lot of high-upside names in this system. Locklear, to me, is about as sure of a bet to reach the majors and contribute as anyone in this system. Locklear came into the Mariners organization as one of the most under-the-radar hitters of his class. Some say his roots at a small school, VCU contributed to this. Locklear has done nothing but produce since. Locklear remains a threat to produce high home run totals with a possible .280 batting average and is not going to hurt I the K’s category. While his stats regressed somewhat from a move to Hi-A to AA, an injury could be a portion of the blame for the slight dip in production. Locklear is the closest high-tier prospect to the majors in Seattle’s system.
Jonny Farmelo, OF
Farmelo seems like a bit of a stretch to some, however, there was a reason he was so coveted by teams (and The University of Virginia). Farmelo was viewed as a tough sign by many due to his strong belief in committing to Virginia. Seattle went over the slot to sign the 5-tool prospect. Farmleo made his pro debut in Lo-A Modesto during the team’s playoff run, and as expected, did not disappoint. Farmelo proved to be one of the most clutch players on the team. Scouts view him as a potential center-field option; however, he has a background as a SS. This kind of utility player with these traits does not come around often. Given the impressive raw tools, I will take the high upside of this special talent.
Lazaro Montes, OF/DH
There is no denying the frame of Montes. A 6’3 monster who looks well bigger than his MLB Pipeline 6’3, 210 lb structure. Montes is perhaps the best power-hitting prospect in all of baseball. With that comes a high strikeout rate (which he showed less of in Lo-A than most thought) but a somewhat decent batting eye. Montes has been played in the LF spot in Modesto, however, he’s far from efficient there. Most suggest Montes is slated as a DH (Yordan Alvarez), or hopefully 1B. The possibility of him sticking as a DH slid him down the list, as does a possible K rate concern. With that being said, a potential 40+ HR bat has a lot of value.
Cole Phillips, SP
While the general belief is that Emerson Hancock is the top pitcher of the Seattle system (more on him briefly), I am far more optimistic on Phillips. Sent to Seattle in the Jared Kelenic deal, Phillips was taken by Atlanta in the 2nd round of the 2022 Draft. Phillips, widely regarded as a 1st round pick, had Tommy John Surgery, which caused him to miss all last season. Phillps has 70 grade fastball which some have stated reached 100 mph. There is also a solid curve that can cause fits for hitters. I suspect with Seattle; they will look to develop a sweeper or gyro ball to his arsenal. I am more intrigued by the ceiling of Phillps than the floor of the next name on this list.
Emerson Hancock, SP
It feels as though Hancock has been on this list for ages. With many Seattle arms going up to the majors (Hancock did have a taste last season), Hancock has been the mainstay since 2020 when he was a 1st round pick for Seattle. Hancock spent almost all last season in AA. His K numbers were far greater in college. The fastball has taken a bit of a step back; however, the slider has improved. I see Hancock as a solid fourth or fifth starter. To me, he does not have that true wipeout pitch. If the slider can continue to develop, perhaps that becomes his go-to, but it is still far behind others in the Mariners system.
Tai Peete, INF
Peete is just a ball of Play-Doh that Seattle can mold into whatever they want. They can do that if the team wants him to become a power hitter. If there is a need for a bat for average and stolen base threats, they can do that. What I like about Peete, is there is so much upside and predictability to him. His age combined with raw ability gives Seattle a player who can become whatever they want him to be. There is a huge high-risk, high reward with his game, though. That is what scares me most.
Micheal Arroyo, INF
I am low on Arroyo. At the onset of his Lo-A career, Arroyo was hitting the ball well. As time went on, the confidence weakened and the injuries set in. While Arroyo will always be a hit first player, I do not envision the power potential of the top 3 prospects in the system, nor the flash of those 3. Arroyo, at his ceiling, is a .310 average with 20+ steals and the potential to be a solid defender. I see a player who makes the majors, just not ones who excel there. However, the hit tool alone makes him worthy of a spot, as any player who can be looked at as an over .300 hitter deserves recognition. It’s worth noting Arroyo is still a young 19.
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Felnin Celestin, OF
If it weren’t for Ethan Salas, Celestin would have been the unquestioned top pick of the 2023 International signing class. Many scouts see the 5-tool potential and clamor with excitement. For all the hype, it’s been rather hard for most to get extended looks at Celestin. There’s no doubt of the ability, but when will we see just a glimpse of it? Hopefully, Celestin gets some good reps in the ACL this season with a possible Modesto call-up in late 2024.
Aidan Smith, OF
Smith was the fourth of the Seattle High School class of the 2024 Draft. Scouts raved about Smith’s hit tool in High School. While that did not flash during his time in Modesto, having a full off-season to adjust to the minor leagues, Smith will surely showcase his hit ability. Does his ability scream superstar? Probably not. With, a prep bat with such a good ability to make contact, the upside is high.
Jonatan Clase, OF
To be honest, I was firmly in the camp of Clase being the top name in this system at mid-season. Clase crushed Lo-A and was on his way to a possible major league call-up in 2023 had everything went right. Well, once Clase hit AA, the projections came back to earth. Clase has always been and should continue to be a hit for average player who gets on base. Clase can steal 50+ bases in the majors. What Clase cannot do, is sell out an average for power. Clase is a top-of-the-order bat at his ceiling and a consistent one at that. If he continues to produce like a middle-of-the-order power bat and strike out at the rate he does, the ceiling is a Quad-A player.
Ryan Bliss, INF
In the same vein as Clase, Bliss is a top-of-the-order bat with solid hit tools and even more gaudy exit velocities. Bliss doesn’t have the speed of Clase, nor the power potential of Emerson. What Bliss has, is a good combination of those that project him as a solid MLB player. Bliss is also a stellar defensive player in the infield, adding to his appeal.
Walter Ford, SP
One of the youngest players of the 2023 Draft Class, Ford was set to make his pro debut in Lo-A Modesto in 2023. That never happened. While reports of why Ford stayed in Complex Ball are scattered, some believe he lost a lot of that gaudy fastball velocity. If that’s true, Ford will obviously take a step down the rankings. However, with the age and upside of Ford, the fastball velo can tick back up and his secondary offerings can improve. At worst, Ford settles into a role as an RP. The one issue is the age and development still give cause for a long development in the minors.
Teddy McGraw, SP
My optimistic mind has very high hopes for the former Wake Forest pitcher. Injuries have cost McGraw. He missed the entire 2023 collegiate season due to TJ surgery (and has had one additional major injury in his career). Seattle has a track record of success with these arms, Bryan Woo being the example. McGraw had an excellent K: BB ratio of almost 2:1 in 2022. There are some concerns of hitters making contact which is evident by a slightly high WHIP.
Alberto Rodriguez, OF
Talk about a tale of two seasons. I was very high on Rodriguez’s ability during his time in Lo-A Modesto. Despite what the scouts had said, I was impressed by his contact and power. As Rodriguez approached his 2022 season in Everett, the batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage went down as did the overall performance. In 2023, A-Rod looked like another player in Hi-A and AA. During his second shot at Hi-A, the numbers nearly doubled. While AA was a bit more of an adjustment, the advanced metrics of his 2023 Hi-A stint and prior track record of adjustment, give hope that there is some real potential to squeeze out.
Dawel Joseph, INF/OF
Joesph was the Mariners’ top international signee of 2024. At only 16 the projections are a bit of a mystery. Given his pedigree among the top international prospects, Joesph has the tools to be special. He does not have the appeal of Celestin or some other top international signees of Settle’s past, however, not ranking him in the Top 20 seems criminal.
Luis Suisbel, 1B/3B
If you knew anything about the Modesto Nuts title run in 2023, you know of Luis Suisbel. For my money, this is the true sleeper in this system. Suisbel maintained a .290 BA in Lo-A with 6 HRs and 32 RBIs. He did this in 124 At-bats’. What has me most excited about Suisbel is his approach during clutch situations. Suisbel was able to deliver in big moments for the Nuts. His approach is still a bit more swing and miss, however, just being able to slightly reduce that and he’s an unquestioned Top-10 name in this system.
Taylor Dollard, SP/RP
Dollard was at one point my favorite pitcher in the system. He did not have wipe-out pitches (although has a devastating slider), but he controls them well and has a very good floor of a 4th or 5th starter. However, last season injuries got the better of him last season and his progression was halted. For what it’s worth, Dollard still has the same upside I fell in love with, his time is just going to come a bit later. I have my concerns and am leaning more towards a high-leverage reliever role.
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Jose Romero, SP
Romero is one of the brightest young pitchers in the org. His stuff is mature for a pitcher his age (19). His fastball sits in the low 90s with a solid breaking ball. I’ve been hesitant to rank Romero higher due to a huge reliever risk.
Jeter Martinez, SP
In the same way I have been hesitant to move Romero up because of his reliever risk, I am just as nervous to move Martinez up for not reaching his high potential. I truly believe Martinz could be one the best pitchers, not only in Seattle’s system but all minor league baseball. At 17, he’s young enough to be molded into a frontline starter, however, also has enough risk to fall off the face of the earth. Martinez has solid offerings and has a much better feel for command and the strike zone for a player his age. My gut instinct is Martinez needs to be higher, but I am taking a cautious approach.
Hogan Windish, 2B/1B
Windish gets very little love. Dan Uggla was a power-hitting 2B and was one of the more intriguing players of his playing days. That is how I comp Windish. During his initial pro season in Modesto, I was struck by the power. During the 2023 season in Hi-A Everett, Windish hit 22 HRs with a .270 average. While the K’s were high the power was on display, especially for a player who played a majority of his games at 2B. If Windish maintains his spot at 2B, this is a very intriguing name.
Josh Hood, INF
Hood was a relatively unheralded college prospect coming into the Seattle system. In Lo-A Modesto, the NC Sate product amassed a 26-game hit streak. That streak was good for a 1st place tie in all the minor leagues. Hood hit a solid .375 during the stretch and was swiftly promoted to Hi-A Everett after. Hood does not have standout power or even a loud hit tool. It is hard to deny the streak. For that reason, I am fully on board with, at the very floor, a utility role in the majors.
Marcelo Perez, SP
Perez is not a young prospect. At 22, he has not moved past Hi-A. Perez does have the ceiling of a 5th starter and the floor of a middle reliever. During his time at Lo-A, Perez was always one of the more consistent starters.
Ricardo Cova, SP
The 19-year-old Cova has yet to hit affiliated ball. Thus far in his 3 years of instructional, he’s been able to produce a healthy average with very little power. The K: BB ratio is not thrilling either, however, with a solid ability to make contact and some stolen base potential, Cova has the ultimate ceiling as a top-of-the-order bat.
Michael Morales, SP
Morales was a highly touted high school draftee by Seattle in the 3rd round of the 2022 draft. Armed with a good array of breaking pitches, Morales did not have as effective of a fastball. Morales has spent 2 full seasons in Lo-A Modesto. In those two seasons, Morales has yet to fully embrace a starter role and seems destined for a bullpen role. My reason for the lower ranking, the fastball doesn’t do it for me, and I am just not sure of his floor or ceiling.
Starlin Aguilar, OF
One of the more promising prospects of the Seattle system, Aguilar stands 5’11 with some serious power potential. His 5 doubles and 1 triple in 60 ABs of ACL ball in 2023 suggest this. If it were not for an injury, Aguilar was assured to be in Lo-A last season.
Brody Hopkins OF, SP
Hopkins is a bit of a wildcard. He can play the Outfield and in a limited pitching role. All reports suggest he will maintain his role as a hitter, and, if all works accordingly, Hopkins has some nice pop to his bat. The strikeout totals could be a concern. Considering the move to a full-time hitting role is in the cards, perhaps a more consistent approach is in the cars.
Ben Williamson, INF
Viewed as a money-saving pick for Seattle in the 2023 MLB draft, Williamson was a hit machine at William & Mary, but being he was doing so at such a small college, the belief was Willamson might struggle in pro ball. While he did make it to Lo-A Modesto, Willamson did succumb to injury leading us with more questions than answers about the hit tool. There is a high average upside, but there is also some doubt as to the true ceiling. Perhaps a full season in affiliated ball with answer that question.
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